![]() Herrnson said in a previous interview that Congressional challengers are immediately at a disadvantage due in part to the comforts of incumbency. “Abortion rights and the economy will surely be on the minds of voters, but they are unlikely to make a difference in a lopsided contest like this one.” ![]() “A few outside groups have spent money in the race, but the total is trifling compared to the amounts committed to the competitive contests,” Herrnson wrote. Green Party candidate Kevin Blacker is not fundraising or accepting donations. Courtney had tripled France’s fundraising in the previous two quarters. Herrnson, who has called Courtney a “prodigious fundraiser” in the past, said he “has outspent France by more than two to one and has almost six times more cash on hand - which he probably won’t need to spend.”īetween the end of June and the end of September, Courtney’s campaign more than doubled fundraising totals compared to France. According to a 2020 story in the New York Times, “Real Clear Politics and its affiliated websites have taken a rightward, aggressively pro-Trump turn over the last four years.” It was changed to “Leans Democratic” this weekend. National political forecasts, including Politico, Cook Report, Sabato Crystal Ball and 538, all have the district as “Likely Democratic,” while CNN and Inside Elections have it as “Solid Democratic.” The only deviation was RealClearPolitics, which had the race as a “Toss Up” despite the Examiner’s poll saying Courtney was out polling France by almost 20 points. The only local poll done on the race, released more than a week ago, conducted by the CT Examiner and Fabrizio, Lee & Associates, found that France is unknown to 71% of likely voters. “Courtney enjoys high name recognition and France is relatively invisible,” Herrnson wrote. (Courtney challenged Simmons in 2002 and lost.) But, Herrnson said, none of that matters - incumbency is the most important factor in who will win the race. ![]() Mike France, R-Ledyard, a Navy veteran, is one of the most serious candidates he’s had to face since he was elected in 2006 by an 83-vote margin against Stonington Republican Rob Simmons. “Courtney is likely to win by a comfortable margin,” UConn political science professor Paul Herrnson, an expert on Congressional elections and political campaigns, wrote in an email to The Day.īy Courtney’s own admission, state Rep. Joe Courtney is proving to be difficult to beat in Tuesday’s election. With high name recognition and a bulging war chest, Democratic U.S. (Sarah Gordon/The Day) Buy Photo Reprints Joe Courtney, outgoing State Representative and Republican candidate Mike France and Green Party candidate Kevin Blacker faced off during the debate hosed by The Day, WFSB the Garde and The League of Women Voters. Green Party candidate Kevin Blacker speaks during a debate between candidates for the Second Congressional district at the Garde Arts Center Wednesday, October 12, 2022.
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